Home sales activity and median price in New Hampshire dipped in March, compared to March 2010, leaving first quarter unit sales practically even with the first quarter of last year, while median price for the first quarter dropped nearly 5 percent from the same period 2010.
Realtors in the Granite State sold 1,892 homes in the first quarter of 2011, compared with 1,891 in 2010, according to data released this week by the New Hampshire Association of Realtors (NHAR). Median price, meanwhile, dropped from $207,000 in the first quarter 2010 to $197,000 in the first quarter 2011, NHAR reported.
“We still have yet to find any clear trend line,” said NHAR President Tom Riley, a 35‐year veteran of the real estate industry and president of Riley Enterprises in Bedford. “Overall, it still appears to be a market that is stabilizing, but we’re certainly in no position to make any bold predictions about a timetable for the recovery.”
Riley noted that the March sales decrease followed two consecutive months of increases, and he said the data is still reflective of a particularly difficult winter selling season in New Hampshire.
“Eventually, we expect to find a clear pattern to the market,” Riley said, “but we haven’t found it yet.” In terms of local markets, six of the state’s 10 counties saw unit sales increases in the first quarter compared to the same period a year ago, including upticks in New Hampshire’s three largest – Hillsborough, Rockingham and Merrimack.
Meanwhile, only Sullivan County and Carroll County showed median price increases.
Click here for March 2011 data residential.
Click here for March 2011 data condo.
Riley continued to assert that the unprecedented buyers’ market – low interest rates, low prices and high inventory – remains ripe for increased activity in the coming months. “The bright spot in this challenging economic picture is the chance for those who in the past have been priced out of the market to now get in,” he said. “I don’t remember a better opportunity for buyers.”
Press Release: NH Association of REALTORS®, Dave Cummings, NHAR Director of Communications
Sales of existing-home sales rose in March, continuing an uneven recovery that began after sales bottomed last July, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing home sales which do include condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million in March from an upwardly revised 4.92 million in February, but are 6.3 percent below the 5.44 million pace in March 2010. Sales were at elevated levels from March through June of 2010 in response to the home buyer tax credit. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expects the improving sales pattern to continue. “Existing-home sales have risen in six of the past eight months, so we’re clearly on a recovery path,” he said. “With rising jobs and excellent affordability conditions, we project moderate improvements into 2012, but not every month will show a gain – primarily because some buyers are finding it too difficult to obtain a mortgage. For those fortunate enough to qualify for financing, monthly mortgage payments as a percent of income have been at record lows.” NAR’s housing affordability index shows the typical monthly mortgage principal and interest payment for the purchase of a median-priced existing home is only 13 percent of gross household income, the lowest since records began in 1970. “Although home sales are coming back without a federal stimulus, sales would be notably stronger if mortgage lending would return to the normal, safe standards that were in place a decade ago – before the loose lending practices that created the unprecedented boom and bust cycle,” Yun explained. “Given that FHA and VA government-backed loan programs turned a modest profit over to the U.S. Treasury last year, and have never required a taxpayer bailout, we believe low down-payment loans should continue to be available for those consumers who have demonstrated financial responsibility and are willing to stay well within their budget. Raising the downpayment requirement would unnecessarily deny credit to many worthy middle-class families and veterans,” Yun said. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $159,600 in March, down 5.9 percent from March 2010. Distressed homes – typically sold at discounts in the vicinity of 20 percent – accounted for a 40 percent market share in March, up from 39 percent in February and 35 percent in March 2010. NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said some renters are looking to home ownership as a hedge against inflation. “The typical buyer today plans to stay in a home for 10 years, while rents are projected to rise at faster rates over the next few years,” he said. “As buyers gain more financial security, the advantages of home ownership become more obvious. Rents will continue to trend up, especially in comparison with a fixed-rate loan which provides financial stability and gradual accumulation of equity over time.” Total housing inventory at the end of March rose 1.5 percent to 3.55 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.4-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with a 8.5-month supply in February. Single-family home sales rose 4.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.45 million in March from 4.28 million in February, but are 6.5 percent below the 4.76 million level in March 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $160,500 in March, down 5.3 percent from a year ago. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 3.9 percent to an annual level of 800,000 in March but are 12.1 percent below March 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $232,900, down 3.0 percent from a year ago. The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. Source: The National Association of Realtors, Washington, DC, April 20, 2011
The real estate news isn’t all grim for February. Remember, real estate is very much local! Yesterday the New Hampshire Union Leader reported that homes sales in our Granite State increased 7.4% in February, contrasting sharply with the National Association of REALTORS® announcement the other day that existing home sales had dropped 9.6% nationally. The median selling price of homes did fall 7.5% for the month, however. The New Hampshire Association of Realtors news release pointed out that year-to-date sales for January and February were 5% ahead of last year’s. Seven of the state’s ten counties saw numbers of sales increase in February. NHAR President Tom Riley said, “I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the housing market appears to be stabilizing.”
So, remember, check with your local REALTOR® for your area’s statistics. Don’t assume that a glum report nationally accurately reflects the activity in your area!
Home sales activity in the Granite State saw a February increase of 7.4 percent compared to February 2010, according to data released recently by the New Hampshire Association of Realtors (NHAR). The median price for statewide home sales, meanwhile, fell 7.5 percent for the month, from $200,000 in February 2010 to $185,000 in February 2011. Year to date (January and February), unit sales are ahead of last year’s pace by 5 percent, while median price for that period is down almost 4 percent. “We’re not ready to jump to the conclusion that this is a trend,” said NHAR President Tom Riley, a 35‐year veteran of the real estate industry and president of Riley Enterprises in Bedford. “But I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the housing market appears to be stabilizing, and that’s great news.” Riley pointed to the fact that despite a difficult winter for home sales, this is the second consecutive year that both January and February activity has increased. The last time both January and February showed unit sales gains for two straight years was 2000‐01 and 2001‐02. In terms of local markets, seven of the state’s 10 counties saw unit sales increases in February compared to a year ago, including a 61 percent jump in Carroll County, 42 percent in Coos County and 38 percent in Belknap County. The state’s largest county, Hillsborough, witnessed a 3.6 percent unit sales increase. Median price, meanwhile, saw increases in four of 10 counties. Click here for February 2011 data residentialClick here for February 2011 data condo With inventory still relatively high, interest rates low and prices competitive, Riley said the market remains ripe for strong sales activity. “There are incredible opportunities for buyers right now,” he said. “It wouldn’t surprise me to see activity continue at a strong pace.” Source: Press Release from Dave Cummings, NHAR Director of Communications
For the third month in a row, there has been an increase in sales of existing homes (which include single-family, condominium, townhomes and co-ops). For the first time in seven months, the sales activity has outpaced that of a year ago at 5.3% above the 5.09 million level in January of 2010. “The uptrend in home sales is consistent with improvements in the economy and jobs, which are helping boost consumer confidence,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “The extremely favorable housing affordability conditions are a big factor, but buyers have been constrained by unnecessarily tight credit. As a result, there are abnormally high levels of all-cash purchases, along with rising investor activity.” Yun added, “Increases in all-cash transactions, the investor market share and distressed home sales all go hand-in-hand. With tight credit standards, it’s not surprising to see so much activity where cash is king and investors are taking advantage of conditions to purchase undervalued homes.” Prices, however, were still down with the national median existing-home price for all housing types at $158,800 for January, down 3.7% from the same time last year. NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said the median price is being dampened by unusual market factors. “Unprecedented levels of all-cash purchases, primarily of distressed homes sold at deep discounts, undoubtedly pulls the median price downward,” Phipps said. “Given the levels of inventory we see today, we believe that traditional homes in good condition have held their value.” With 3.38 million existing homes available for sale, total housing inventory represents a 7.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 8.2-month supply in December. This is the lowest level since December 2009 when there was a 7.3-month supply. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 4.6% to an annual pace of 830,000 in January from a spike in December and are 1.2% below January 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $236,500, which is 4.0% below a year ago. Source: National Association of REALTORS®
As reported in the REAL Trends Update #1275 on February 1st, the number of properties going under contract nationally continue to increase. Through December, the numbers have gone up in five of the last six months (although this past December was 4% below a year ago). The fact that the contract activity is fairly steady indicates that the sales volume is approaching a “sustainable, healthy volume” in the range of 5.5 million sales. The media reporting of the reality of “modest gains” in the job market and other indications of an improving economy are giving consumers some confidence to seriously pursue the purchase of a home. The housing affordability conditions continue to be excellent for those active buyers, as there is still a great selection in inventory, sellers are motivated, and interest rates are still very appealing (and expected to rise only modestly over the first quarter and into the second). The article further reports that buyers shouldn’t expect to see continuing falling prices in all areas, as the median existing home price actually rose 0.3% in 2010. Predictions are for a flat or slight rise in this median selling price over 2011. The expectation is that home sales will rise about 8% to 5.3 million which brings it closer to what is considered a healthy, sustainable level of about 5.5 million.
The month of November saw home sales resuming a growth trend since bottoming in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing-home sales rose 5.6%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in November from 4.43 million in October. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, is hopeful for 2011. “Continuing gains in home sales are encouraging, and the positive impact of steady job creation will more than trump some negative impact from a modest rise in mortgage interest rates, which remain historically favorable,” he said. Yun added that home buyers are responding to improved affordability conditions. “The relationship recently between mortgage interest rates, home prices and family income has been the most favorable on record for buying a home since we started measuring in 1970,” he said. “Therefore, the market is recovering and we should trend up to a healthy, sustainable level in 2011.” The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $170,600 in November, up 0.4% from November 2009. Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 4.0% to 3.71 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.5-month supply in October. NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said good buying opportunities will continue. “Traditionally there are far fewer buyers competing for properties at this time of the year, so serious buyers have a lot of opportunities during the winter months,” he said. “Buyers will enjoy favorable affordability conditions into the new year, although mortgage rates are expected to gradually rise as 2011 progresses.” “In the short term, mortgage interest rates should hover just above recent record lows, while home prices have generally stabilized following declines from 2007 through 2009,” Yun said. “Although mortgage interest rates have ticked up in recent weeks, overall conditions remain extremely favorable for buyers who can obtain credit.” Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 2.7% to an annual pace of 770,000 in November but are 33.0% below the cyclical peak in November 2009 (this peak was caused by buyers trying to beat the deadline for the federal buyer credits). The median price in the Northeast was $242,500, which is 9.2% higher than a year ago. This article is based on one which appeared in RISMEDIA, December 23, 2010; the data source is the National Association of Realtors. For more information, visit www.realtor.org.
The real estate market today seems to be a mixture of news. I checked our Multiple Listing Service for the number of houses sold from January to September 1st and compared them to last year in the 9 area towns. Sales have actually increased by 9% – 152 sold homes in 2010, 139 solds in 2009. The average days on market haven’t seen much change; it takes roughly about 5 months to sell a house (keep in mind that is an average – some take longer, some take less time). And so far, homes are selling for an average of 91% of their asking price – same as last year. If sales activity mimics ‘09, this year may end up ahead of 2009 as the last two quarters in 2009 had the highest number of sales. The tempering factor is that right now there are 484 houses on the market. Basically there is a 2 year supply of homes to sell. The good news? We‘re making slow but steady progress. Fortunately, with NH’s lower unemployment rate and more stable economy, our state is poised to take advantage of market increases when they happen. And for buyers, it’s still a great time to be buying with the wide range of choices and low interest rates. If you’d like to know how sales are doing in your specific town, feel free to contact me!
Donna Forest603-526-4116
Data from the US Census Bureau seems to support that, when times are tougher, homes get smaller. According to this data, the average size of a new single-family home shrank noticeably, particularly in the Northeast, by about 200 sq. ft. to 2,529. While some might think that this is a reaction to the years of Mc-Mansion building which has taken place, the Census Bureau says otherwise: home sizes apparently declined in the recession of the early 1980’s as well (quoted source: David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders). According to Philadelphia economist Kevin Gillen, vice president of Econsult Corp., “…that buyers are also having fewer children, so they need less space…” but they are also looking for more energy-efficient homes. The larger number of first time home buyers (who can’t afford a bigger home) has also influenced the trend. 30 years ago, the average home was 1,700 sq. ft. Source - a RISMEDIA posted article, June 26, 2010
Wondering how the real estate market is doing these days? Using data in our MLS, it appears that sales have nudged up from 2009, based on data from 8 towns –Bradford, New London, Newbury, Sunapee, Sutton, Springfield, Warner, Wilmot. From Jan. to July 1, 2009, a total of 85 homes sold with a 90% list to sell ratio, and an average of 194 days on market. In 2010, same time frame, 109 homes sold with a 92% list to sell ratio and an average of 212 days on market. Looking at the big picture, in these 8 towns, a total of 219 homes sold in 2009. Currently there are 431 houses for sale. With supply exceeding demand, this will most likely
put downward pressure on home prices.
Home sales will continue to be influenced by economic factors such as the unemployment rate and the stock market. Obviously no one has a crystal ball to really predict what the future market will look like. However, NHAR President Monika McGillicuddy is optimistic that the low interest rates, relatively low prices, and substantial inventory will continue to lead towards a gradual improvement of the real estate market.
Donna Forest, Broker Associate