The month of November saw home sales resuming a growth trend since bottoming in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing-home sales rose 5.6%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in November from 4.43 million in October. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, is hopeful for 2011. “Continuing gains in home sales are encouraging, and the positive impact of steady job creation will more than trump some negative impact from a modest rise in mortgage interest rates, which remain historically favorable,” he said. Yun added that home buyers are responding to improved affordability conditions. “The relationship recently between mortgage interest rates, home prices and family income has been the most favorable on record for buying a home since we started measuring in 1970,” he said. “Therefore, the market is recovering and we should trend up to a healthy, sustainable level in 2011.” The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $170,600 in November, up 0.4% from November 2009. Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 4.0% to 3.71 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.5-month supply in October. NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said good buying opportunities will continue. “Traditionally there are far fewer buyers competing for properties at this time of the year, so serious buyers have a lot of opportunities during the winter months,” he said. “Buyers will enjoy favorable affordability conditions into the new year, although mortgage rates are expected to gradually rise as 2011 progresses.” “In the short term, mortgage interest rates should hover just above recent record lows, while home prices have generally stabilized following declines from 2007 through 2009,” Yun said. “Although mortgage interest rates have ticked up in recent weeks, overall conditions remain extremely favorable for buyers who can obtain credit.” Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 2.7% to an annual pace of 770,000 in November but are 33.0% below the cyclical peak in November 2009 (this peak was caused by buyers trying to beat the deadline for the federal buyer credits). The median price in the Northeast was $242,500, which is 9.2% higher than a year ago. This article is based on one which appeared in RISMEDIA, December 23, 2010; the data source is the National Association of Realtors. For more information, visit www.realtor.org.
The real estate market today seems to be a mixture of news. I checked our Multiple Listing Service for the number of houses sold from January to September 1st and compared them to last year in the 9 area towns. Sales have actually increased by 9% – 152 sold homes in 2010, 139 solds in 2009. The average days on market haven’t seen much change; it takes roughly about 5 months to sell a house (keep in mind that is an average – some take longer, some take less time). And so far, homes are selling for an average of 91% of their asking price – same as last year. If sales activity mimics ‘09, this year may end up ahead of 2009 as the last two quarters in 2009 had the highest number of sales. The tempering factor is that right now there are 484 houses on the market. Basically there is a 2 year supply of homes to sell. The good news? We‘re making slow but steady progress. Fortunately, with NH’s lower unemployment rate and more stable economy, our state is poised to take advantage of market increases when they happen. And for buyers, it’s still a great time to be buying with the wide range of choices and low interest rates. If you’d like to know how sales are doing in your specific town, feel free to contact me!
Donna Forest603-526-4116
Data from the US Census Bureau seems to support that, when times are tougher, homes get smaller. According to this data, the average size of a new single-family home shrank noticeably, particularly in the Northeast, by about 200 sq. ft. to 2,529. While some might think that this is a reaction to the years of Mc-Mansion building which has taken place, the Census Bureau says otherwise: home sizes apparently declined in the recession of the early 1980’s as well (quoted source: David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders). According to Philadelphia economist Kevin Gillen, vice president of Econsult Corp., “…that buyers are also having fewer children, so they need less space…” but they are also looking for more energy-efficient homes. The larger number of first time home buyers (who can’t afford a bigger home) has also influenced the trend. 30 years ago, the average home was 1,700 sq. ft. Source - a RISMEDIA posted article, June 26, 2010
Wondering how the real estate market is doing these days? Using data in our MLS, it appears that sales have nudged up from 2009, based on data from 8 towns –Bradford, New London, Newbury, Sunapee, Sutton, Springfield, Warner, Wilmot. From Jan. to July 1, 2009, a total of 85 homes sold with a 90% list to sell ratio, and an average of 194 days on market. In 2010, same time frame, 109 homes sold with a 92% list to sell ratio and an average of 212 days on market. Looking at the big picture, in these 8 towns, a total of 219 homes sold in 2009. Currently there are 431 houses for sale. With supply exceeding demand, this will most likely
put downward pressure on home prices.
Home sales will continue to be influenced by economic factors such as the unemployment rate and the stock market. Obviously no one has a crystal ball to really predict what the future market will look like. However, NHAR President Monika McGillicuddy is optimistic that the low interest rates, relatively low prices, and substantial inventory will continue to lead towards a gradual improvement of the real estate market.
Donna Forest, Broker Associate
Here are the first quarter real estate statistics from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors. Although these are statewide stats, they certainly reflect to a degree what has been going on in New London, NH, real estate and the Dartmouth Lake Sunapee Region so far in 2010.
Here are three things New Hampshire REALTORS® can celebrate this spring:
- Home sales are up 13 percent, condo sales are up 30 percent, and prices are up over the first quarter of 2009;
- New Hampshire non-farm employment is rising: we’re only state in region to see an increase; and
- Our state still leads region in the key index of economic activity, and it is also rising
Not only are New Hampshire home sales up over the first quarter of last year, but median home prices have also risen 6 percent statewide and are up in seven of our state’s 10 counties. Condominium prices are also 4 percent above the first quarter of last year.
The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®. NHAR has taken no officlal position on the matter of expanded gambling in New Hampshire. |
Half the counties in our state saw double digit home sales increase over last year, which suggests an awfully fast start for the year, no doubt aided by the homebuyer’s tax credit. But economic indicators in our state are so much better than other New England states that tax break or none, we are likely to fare better than they will in terms of home sales, unless we choose to follow their lead with expanded gambling.
New Hampshire’s unemployment rate was 7.1 percent in February (the latest numbers available), which was more than two points below the national rate and the second lowest in New England (Please see charts below). But the unemployment rate only looks at the small part of the picture.
The full part is measured by total non-farm
employment, which in New Hampshire has been increasing since the middle of last year. Since then, 11,000 more people are working in our state, and we’re the only state in the region where that’s happening.
These indicators of New Hampshire’s economic health both point in the same direction. Our state is on track to lead New England out of this awful recession, and our real estate market is also likely to recover faster than other nearby states.
New Hampshire was again voted as the safest state in the nation, and we are still ranked fourth in terms of economic activity index. That index is also rising and is up almost three points since mid-2009. Again, we are the only New England state where that measure of our economic well-being has increased since then.
On nearly every measure of quality of life, as well as many other indicators, New Hampshire leads the nation and all other New England states. But our longstanding New Hampshire advantage is being threatened as never before by the rush to permit slots and casinos. To lose our substantial advantage would be an irreversible tragedy.
Here’s just one example: Property taxes per person in 2007 in Connecticut were $2,313.42, compared to $1,917.83 in New Hampshire (17 percent less than Connecticut), according to the Census Bureau. Adding lots of gambling venues certainly hasn’t done much to lower Connecticut's property taxes.
The bottom line is this: Both demographic and economic trends are quite negative for the Southern New England states. Income taxes and sales taxes, along with slot machines and casino gambling, have not improved either their economy or their demography. Do we really want to do what they have done and go where they have gone?
Table I: New Hampshire unit sales and median price first quarter 2010
| County | Unit sales 1Q 2010 |
% change 2009-10 |
Median $ 1Q 2010 |
% change 2009-10 |
| Belknap | 11 | +16% | $180,000 | +10% |
| Carroll | 107 | -7% | $178,000 | +5% |
| Cheshire | 88 | -1% | $159,950 | -3% |
| Coos | 57 | -7% | $100,000 | +67% |
| Grafton | 125 | +24% | $170,000 | +14% |
| Hillsborough | 482 | +4% | $217,450 | -1% |
| Merrimack | 227 | +38% | $190,000 | +3% |
| Rockingham | 437 | +19% | $252,000 | +4% |
| Strafford | 181 | +20% | $190,000 | +7% |
| Sullivan | 62 | 0% | $131,500 | -9% |
| Statewide | 1,885 | 13% | $207,000 | +6% |
Here are the first quarter real estate statistics from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors. Although these are statewide stats, they certainly reflect to a degree what has been going on in Sunapee real estate and the Dartmouth Lake Sunapee Region so far in 2010. Here are three things New Hampshire REALTORS® can celebrate this spring:
- Home sales are up 13 percent, condo sales are up 30 percent, and prices are up over the first quarter of 2009;
- New Hampshire non-farm employment is rising: we’re only state in region to see an increase; and
- Our state still leads region in the key index of economic activity, and it is also rising
Not only are New Hampshire home sales up over the first quarter of last year, but median home prices have also risen 6 percent statewide and are up in seven of our state’s 10 counties. Condominium prices are also 4 percent above the first quarter of last year.
The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®. NHAR has taken no officlal position on the matter of expanded gambling in New Hampshire. |
Half the counties in our state saw double digit home sales increase over last year, which suggests an awfully fast start for the year, no doubt aided by the homebuyer’s tax credit. But economic indicators in our state are so much better than other New England states that tax break or none, we are likely to fare better than they will in terms of home sales, unless we choose to follow their lead with expanded gambling. New Hampshire’s unemployment rate was 7.1 percent in February (the latest numbers available), which was more than two points below the national rate and the second lowest in New England (Please see charts below). But the unemployment rate only looks at the small part of the picture. The full part is measured by total non-farm employment, which in New Hampshire has been increasing since the middle of last year. Since then, 11,000 more people are working in our state, and we’re the only state in the region where that’s happening. These indicators of New Hampshire’s economic health both point in the same direction. Our state is on track to lead New England out of this awful recession, and our real estate market is also likely to recover faster than other nearby states. New Hampshire was again voted as the safest state in the nation, and we are still ranked fourth in terms of economic activity index. That index is also rising and is up almost three points since mid-2009. Again, we are the only New England state where that measure of our economic well-being has increased since then. On nearly every measure of quality of life, as well as many other indicators, New Hampshire leads the nation and all other New England states. But our longstanding New Hampshire advantage is being threatened as never before by the rush to permit slots and casinos. To lose our substantial advantage would be an irreversible tragedy. Here’s just one example: Property taxes per person in 2007 in Connecticut were $2,313.42, compared to $1,917.83 in New Hampshire (17 percent less than Connecticut), according to the Census Bureau. Adding lots of gambling venues certainly hasn’t done much to lower Connecticut's property taxes.
The bottom line is this: Both demographic and economic trends are quite negative for the Southern New England states. Income taxes and sales taxes, along with slot machines and casino gambling, have not improved either their economy or their demography. Do we really want to do what they have done and go where they have gone?
Table I: New Hampshire unit sales and median price first quarter 2010
| County | Unit sales 1Q 2010 | % change 2009-10 | Median $ 1Q 2010 | % change 2009-10 |
| Belknap | 11 |
+16% |
$180,000 | +10% |
| Carroll | 107 | -7% | $178,000 | +5% |
| Cheshire | 88 | -1% | $159,950 | -3% |
| Coos | 57 | -7% | $100,000 | +67% |
| Grafton | 125 | +24% | $170,000 | +14% |
| Hillsborough | 482 | +4% | $217,450 | -1% |
| Merrimack | 227 | +38% | $190,000 | +3% |
| Rockingham | 437 | +19% | $252,000 | +4% |
| Strafford | 181 | +20% | $190,000 | +7% |
| Sullivan | 62 | 0% | $131,500 | -9% |
| Statewide | 1,885 | 13% | $207,000 | +6% |
The positive momentum felt in the New Hampshire housing market during the second half of 2009 continued into January 2010, with the state’s residential home sales ahead of January 2009 by 16.5 percent. This time, there is additional good news on the price side as well, as the median price of residential homes increased by 7.5 percent over the same period last year – the first month-over-month median price increase in 26 months and the largest such jump in 52 months.
According to data released this week by the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® (NHAR), 529 single family homes sold in January 2010, a substantial gain from the 454 home sales in January 2009. And the median price in that same period was $215,000 this year, compared to $200,000 of a year ago.
The last time home prices showed an increase for a single month over the same period from a year prior was November 2007, and the last time that increase was better than 7.5 percent was September 2005.
“We’re aware that one month cannot be defined a trend, but we’ve expected that the good news in terms of sales would ultimately translate to prices, and we’re hopeful that this is the start of that change,” said NHAR President Monika McGillicuddy, a 25-year veteran of the real estate industry and an agent with Prudential Verani in Londonderry. “This is excellent news all the way around.”
And condominium sales, which had lagged behind the residential numbers throughout much of 2009, were up in number and price as well – with a 41 percent gain in sales and 9.5 percent median price improvement.
McGillicuddy attributed the sales and price increases in part to the continued incentive of the homebuyer tax credit, and generally as a continuing signal that the residential real estate market is experiencing the early stages of the recovery process.
“There are many factors that have gone into
this shift, from the tax credit to excellent interest rates to competitive prices,” McGillicuddy said. “Ultimately, we’re talking about an increase in confidence that I believe is at the core of sustainable momentum in the real estate market.”
The good news filtered to the local markets as well, as a majority of New Hampshire’s 10 counties saw year-end increases in both sales and prices.
“We’ll continue to monitor these numbers closely,” McGillicuddy said, “but from what I see and from what I’m hearing from other Realtors around the state, we’re very encouraged.”
Source: NH Association of REALTORS Press Release 2/16/2010
“New Hampshire residential home sales experienced the largest single-month increase on record last month (November) as sales jumped 70% from November of 2008.” In 2008, November saw 673 sales; in 2009, there were 1,141. The NHAR (New Hampshire Association of Realtors which tracks real estate data for the State) attributed the jump in part to the home buyer tax credit incentive. The jump was also considered a signal that the NH real estate market is in the middle of the early stages of recovery which will head us back to a “normalized residential housing market”. The cumulative totals for 2009 are about 5% ahead of the same period last year. Also important about the increase in the number of sales is that it has helped to drive down the statewide inventory to a 9.1 month supply. For comparison, at the end of January, 2009, it was at a 22 month supply. Prices do continue to lag, however, which should continue to make buying a home very attractive to buyers. The median price of last November was at $215,000 and dropped 2.8% this November to $209,000. Source: NH Union Leader 12/16/2009