The good news is that new listings are up 10.9% statewide. NH sales thru Aug. 2024 increased 2.5% compared to the same time in 2023 however the median sales price is up 10.9% at $515,000. Houses are basically selling at 101% of their asking price with an average of 27 days on the market.
A more local snapshot, which includes 9 towns in our area, shows that sales jumped 23% thru August compared to the same time in 2023. The median sales price is $530,000 (up 8% from 2023). Homes are on the market an avg. of 32 days and are selling at asking price.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors said “Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.” He also said “Homes priced right are selling very quickly, but homes priced too high are deterring prospective buyers.” This essentially mirrors our local market as we are seeing more price reductions than we’ve seen in a long time.
Whether buying or selling, contact me if you’d like to make an informed decision on your next move.
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Donna ForestM: 603-731-5151donna@donnaforest.com Follow her on Facebook |
Despite the mortgage rates, demand continues to exceed supply. The encouraging news is that new listings are up 14.4% statewide thru April. NH sales thru April 2024 increased 5% compared to the same time in 2023 however the median sales price is up 11% at $485,000. Houses are basically selling at 100% of their asking price with an average of 33 days on the market.
A more local snapshot, which includes 10 towns in our area, shows that sales increased 7% thru April with a median sales price of $479,000 ( down 2% from 2023). Homes are on the market an average of 42 days and are selling at asking price.
So what's next for home prices? According to the Home Price Expectation Survey (a survey of over 100 economists, real estate experts, & market strategists), experts are projecting home prices will continue to rise for at least the next 5 years. The percentage of appreciation is expected to be at a much more normal rate, from 3.3% to 4.1%.
Whether buying or selling, contact me if you'd like to make an informed decision on your next move.
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Donna ForestM: 603-731-5151donna@donnaforest.com Follow her on Facebook |
This past year we continued to see rising prices and low inventory, making it challenging for buyers. NH saw fewer home sales than any other year since 2011. The total number of closed sales was down 19% compared to 2022. December had only a 1.4 month supply of homes to sell – 1382 homes for sale In the whole state compared to 1551 in 2022 (a balanced market has a 5-6 month supply). Since demand exceeded supply, this pushed the median sales price of a home in NH to an all-time high of $470,000 – a 6.8% increase over 2022.
Looking closer to home, the combined sales for Newbury, New London, and Sunapee followed the same trends as the whole state. Sales were down 19% from the year before with 126 homes sold for the year vs. 155 in 2022. The average days on market was 22 days and the median selling price was $645,000, up 7.5% from 2022.
Whether buying or selling, contact me to find out how low inventory and increasing buyer demand impacts you.
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Donna ForestM: 603-731-5151donna@donnaforest.com Follow her on Facebook |
Economists are optimistic about this coming year, especially as mortgage rates are expected to be lower and inflation appears to be slowing. Below are some top predictions from the experts.
- Mortgage rates are expected to ease. Forecasters are calling for rates to be in the 6% range.
- Home prices will continue to rise. The Home Price Expectation Survey from Fannie Mae, on average, anticipates home price growth at 5.95% in 2023, followed by slower growth in 2024 at 2.4% and 2.7% in 2025.
- The housing market will remain competitive. This is due to several factors, including population growth, strong job growth, and a limited supply of homes for sale.
- The supply of homes should loosen up somewhat as mortgage rates drop and changing circumstances will lead to more moves and new listings.
Overall, there are positive signs this will be a better year for the housing market with the expectation 2024 will see slight home-price gains, lower mortgage rates, and a somewhat easing of inventory constraints. Prices will vary by local markets, but experts project they will continue to rise across the country at a pace that’s more normal.
Contact me to find out how the market may impact your buying or selling goals.
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Donna ForestM: 603-731-5151donna@donnaforest.com Follow her on Facebook |
SPRING MARKET UPDATE
The housing market is not crashing.
In fact, we are in the strongest real estate economy where 48% of homes are equity rich with at least 50% equity. 63% of mortgages originated are below 4%.
Of note:
- Interest rates are fluctuating based on economic factors right now. Rates 6.5% - 7% mean limited buyer demand. Rates 7%-7.5% mean weak buyer demand. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors (NAR), expects rates to fall to 5.5% by mid-2023. Fannie Mae predicts 6.8% and Freddie Mac is 6.4%.
- Home prices will vary depending on location. Overheated markets are depreciating; others are appreciating. In NH, prices are up 5% thru Feb. 2023. The Home Price Forecast 2023 shows, for example, Realtor.com projecting +5.4%, CoreLogic +3.1%, NAR -1.6%, Fannie Mae -4.2%. Prices are expected to increase and reach more normal levels of 3%-4% annually starting in 2025.
- The biggest challenge is low inventory. The number of homes for sale in the US is 47.4% lower than it was before the pandemic. In NH, new listings are down 20.3% in Feb. 2023 vs. 2022. The lack of homes for sale has kept prices from falling. Fourteen years of underbuilding is one of the major reasons for this low supply.
Don’t let false information stop you from buying or selling. Contact me for the straight scoop on the real estate market.
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Donna ForestListing Broker
Contact me today!O: 605.526.4116
donna@donnaforest.com |
Home Selling Trends in 2022
Since 1981, the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors has published an annual report providing insight into buying and selling behaviors. Since my last article was about buyers, I thought it would be good to provide some interesting data on sellers from the 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.
- The typical home seller was 60 years old and had lived in their home for 10 yrs.
- 86% of sellers worked with a real estate agent to sell their home.
- 85% said they would definitely recommend their agent for future services.
- 10% of home sales were For Sale By Owner (FSBO). Of this 10%, half of the sellers knew the buyer of their home. FSBOs typically sell for much less than the selling price of agent assisted home sales.
- For recently sold homes, the final sales price was a median of 100% of the listing price – the highest recorded since 2002. In NH for 2022, the median sales price was $440,000, an 11.4% increase from 2021, and the sales price was 102.2% of the listing price.
The information provided in this report helps highlight the trends in the housing market and also shows that buyers and sellers value the role of a real estate professional. Whether buying or selling contact me to see how these trends impact you.
Contact Donna Forest: 603-526-4116; www.DonnaForest.com; Donna@DonnaForest.com
You’ll be moving in the right direction with Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate - The Milestone Team
Home Buying Trends in 2022
Since 1981, the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors has published an annual report providing insight into buying and selling behaviors. Below is some interesting data on buyers from the 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.
- First time buyers made up 26% of all buyers, down from last year’s 34% and is the lowest number in 41 years.
- The distance buyers moved from their last home to their new one increased from 15 miles to 50 miles as buyers looked to small towns and rural areas..
- 49% of buyers cited quality of the neighborhood as the most important factor in determining location.
- They typical home purchased was 1800 SF, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, built in 1986.
- Most buyers expected to live in their home for a median of 15 yrs.
- 86% of buyers purchased their home thru a real estate agent. 89% would use their agent again or recommend their agent to others.
- 88% of buyers reported they view a home purchase as a good investment.
This is a small sample of the characteristics of home buyers in 2022. If you’d like to know how current trends and behaviors impact your goals of buying or selling, then contact me.
Contact Donna Forest: 603-526-4116; www.DonnaForest.com; Donna@DonnaForest.com
You’ll be moving in the right direction with Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate - The Milestone Team
What the Experts Predict for 2023
The popular term for 2022 was it’s a “shifting market”. In other words, the exuberant days of low interest rates and over asking prices from the previous 2 years were disappearing. Here’s what the experts are predicting for 2023.
- If inflation is high, mortgage rates will be high. But if inflation continues to fall, rates will likely fall as well. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors, expects rates to be at 5.7% by year end. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are projecting around 6%.
- Housing inventory is expected to remain tight (putting upward pressure on home prices). Sales are down 17% in NH for 2022 from the previous year. For the U.S., Yun predicts sales to fall 6.8% in 2023 compared to 2022. Higher interest rates have tempered buyer demand as well.
- Home price appreciation could go up or down. Some experts predict up to 5.4% appreciation while others say prices could depreciate as much as 5.1%. Most likely appreciation will be relatively flat or neutral. Some areas could see small price gains and others may see slight price declines.
Moderation might be the new catch phrase for 2023. Rates are expected to stabilize, the volume of sales will be less, and home appreciation may be relatively flat, depending on where you live. Whether buying or selling, contact me to know how this market impacts you.
Contact Donna Forest: 603-526-4116; www.DonnaForest.com; Donna@DonnaForest.com
You’ll be moving in the right direction with Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate - The Milestone Team
Slowdown or Bubble?
The headlines today are attention grabbing. Recession, housing bubble, dropping prices. News is designed to get you to watch more news – not educate you. Fear sells. If you look at the data, there is no case to be made for a national bubble or housing crash. Here’s why:
Since 2008, lending standards are much stricter. The exotic programs are gone and there are now better qualified buyers. Foreclosures have been trending down since 2010 – 2.9M in 2010 to 151K in 2021. Today, only 0.4% of homeowners are facing foreclosure and about 91% of these have at least some equity built up. US households own 41 trillion dollars in owner occupied real estate. There is 12 trillion in mortgage debt, leaving 29 trillion in equity. That’s a big number!
Inventory is still historically low. In the US, it is up 27% year-over-year as of Sept. 9th. Compare this to 2019 where it was 43.2%. In NH, new listings as of Aug., are down 22% and there is only a 1.6 month supply of homes to sell. (A balanced market has a 6 month supply).
Price appreciation is slowing but not depreciating. Experts forecast an avg. gain of 11.3% for home prices in 2022 and 2.5% for 2023. YTD thru Aug., the median sales price in NH is up 14.5% compared to Aug. 2021.
Rates are rising in response to inflation. Over the past 5 recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an avg. of 1.8% from the peak to the trough.
Buyer demand has moderated compared to the frenzy of the last 2 years, however showing activity is still beating pre-pandemic levels. Interest rates will fluctuate, and pricing is all about supply & demand. Housing is traditionally one of the first sectors to slow as the economy softens but is also one of the first to rebound. Don’t let fear stop you from buying or selling today. Contact me to work with a professional to help guide you thru this process.
Contact Donna Forest: 603-526-4116; www.DonnaForest.com; Donna@DonnaForest.com
You’ll be moving in the right direction with Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate - The Milestone Team
What You Need to Know About the Housing Market
It seems like the term “housing recession” is in everything you read and see on the news. Since I was not even sure what this means, I researched what the experts are saying and found the following:
- Home sales are slowing, with a projection of 5.1M (million) by year end. It is quite a drop compared to the heyday of the last 2 years; there were 6.1M sales in 2021 and 5.65M in 2020. However, looking back at the more “normal” years with 5.25M in 2019 and 5.3M in 2018, 5.1M doesn’t seem as dramatic.
- Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors states "We're witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building," "It's not a recession in home prices," Yun added. "Inventory remains tight and prices continue to rise nationally with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price."
- In NH, sales are down 15% thru July compared to 2021. The median selling price is up 14.8% at $445K and the state has 1.7 month supply of homes to sell. Anything less than 6-7 month supply is a sellers’ market. In the US, the median price is $403,800, up 10.8% from July 2021 and there is a 3 month supply of inventory.
- Experts predict the following mortgage rates - 5.3% 4th Q this year, 5.2% 1Q 2023, 5.18% 2Q 2023, and 4.97% 3Q 2023. Historically still a “low” rate considering between April 1971 and June 2022, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 7.77% (from Freddie Mac records).
The market has changed from the last two years. Fewer bidding wars, houses staying on the market longer than a weekend, offers being accepted with contingencies. While still a sellers’ market for now, buyers should see more inventory slowly come on the market with a little fluctuation in interest rates. Contact me for more details on how the market impacts you.
Donna Forest ~ donna@donnaforest.com ~ 603-731-5151