Real Estate Trends

Here are the first quarter real estate statistics from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors. Although these are statewide stats, they certainly reflect to a degree what has been going on in New London, NH, real estate and the Dartmouth Lake Sunapee Region so far in 2010.

Here are three things New Hampshire REALTORS® can celebrate this spring:

• Home sales are up 13 percent, condo sales are up 30 percent, and prices are up over the first quarter of 2009;
• New Hampshire non-farm employment is rising: we’re only state in region to see an increase; and
• Our state still leads region in the key index of economic activity, and it is also rising

Not only are New Hampshire home sales up over the first quarter of last year, but median home prices have also risen 6 percent statewide and are up in seven of our state’s 10 counties. Condominium prices are also 4 percent above the first quarter of last year.

Half the counties in our state saw double digit home sales increase over last year, which suggests an awfully fast start for the year, no doubt aided by the homebuyer’s tax credit. But economic indicators in our state are so much better than other New England states that tax break or none, we are likely to fare better than they will in terms of home sales, unless we choose to follow their lead with expanded gambling.

New Hampshire’s unemployment rate was 7.1 percent in February (the latest numbers available), which was more than two points below the national rate and the second lowest in New England (Please see charts below). But the unemployment rate only looks at the small part of the picture.

The full part is measured by total non-farm

employment, which in New Hampshire has been increasing since the middle of last year. Since then, 11,000 more people are working in our state, and we’re the only state in the region where that’s happening.

These indicators of New Hampshire’s economic health both point in the same direction. Our state is on track to lead New England out of this awful recession, and our real estate market is also likely to recover faster than other nearby states.

New Hampshire was again voted as the safest state in the nation, and we are still ranked fourth in terms of economic activity index. That index is also rising and is up almost three points since mid-2009. Again, we are the only New England state where that measure of our economic well-being has increased since then.

On nearly every measure of quality of life, as well as many other indicators, New Hampshire leads the nation and all other New England states. But our longstanding New Hampshire advantage is being threatened as never before by the rush to permit slots and casinos. To lose our substantial advantage would be an irreversible tragedy.

Here’s just one example: Property taxes per person in 2007 in Connecticut were $2,313.42, compared to $1,917.83 in New Hampshire (17 percent less than Connecticut), according to the Census Bureau. Adding lots of gambling venues certainly hasn’t done much to lower Connecticut's property taxes.

The bottom line is this: Both demographic and economic trends are quite negative for the Southern New England states. Income taxes and sales taxes, along with slot machines and casino gambling, have not improved either their economy or their demography. Do we really want to do what they have done and go where they have gone?

Table I: New Hampshire unit sales and median price first quarter 2010

Here are the first quarter real estate statistics from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors. Although these are statewide stats, they certainly reflect to a degree what has been going on in Sunapee real estate and the Dartmouth Lake Sunapee Region so far in 2010. Here are three things New Hampshire REALTORS® can celebrate this spring:

• Home sales are up 13 percent, condo sales are up 30 percent, and prices are up over the first quarter of 2009;
• New Hampshire non-farm employment is rising: we’re only state in region to see an increase; and
• Our state still leads region in the key index of economic activity, and it is also rising

Not only are New Hampshire home sales up over the first quarter of last year, but median home prices have also risen 6 percent statewide and are up in seven of our state’s 10 counties. Condominium prices are also 4 percent above the first quarter of last year.

Half the counties in our state saw double digit home sales increase over last year, which suggests an awfully fast start for the year, no doubt aided by the homebuyer’s tax credit. But economic indicators in our state are so much better than other New England states that tax break or none, we are likely to fare better than they will in terms of home sales, unless we choose to follow their lead with expanded gambling. New Hampshire’s unemployment rate was 7.1 percent in February (the latest numbers available), which was more than two points below the national rate and the second lowest in New England (Please see charts below). But the unemployment rate only looks at the small part of the picture. The full part is measured by total non-farm employment, which in New Hampshire has been increasing since the middle of last year. Since then, 11,000 more people are working in our state, and we’re the only state in the region where that’s happening. These indicators of New Hampshire’s economic health both point in the same direction. Our state is on track to lead New England out of this awful recession, and our real estate market is also likely to recover faster than other nearby states. New Hampshire was again voted as the safest state in the nation, and we are still ranked fourth in terms of economic activity index. That index is also rising and is up almost three points since mid-2009. Again, we are the only New England state where that measure of our economic well-being has increased since then. On nearly every measure of quality of life, as well as many other indicators, New Hampshire leads the nation and all other New England states. But our longstanding New Hampshire advantage is being threatened as never before by the rush to permit slots and casinos. To lose our substantial advantage would be an irreversible tragedy. Here’s just one example: Property taxes per person in 2007 in Connecticut were $2,313.42, compared to $1,917.83 in New Hampshire (17 percent less than Connecticut), according to the Census Bureau. Adding lots of gambling venues certainly hasn’t done much to lower Connecticut's property taxes.

The bottom line is this: Both demographic and economic trends are quite negative for the Southern New England states. Income taxes and sales taxes, along with slot machines and casino gambling, have not improved either their economy or their demography. Do we really want to do what they have done and go where they have gone?

Table I: New Hampshire unit sales and median price first quarter 2010

The positive momentum felt in the New Hampshire housing market during the second half of 2009 continued into January 2010, with the state’s residential home sales ahead of January 2009 by 16.5 percent. This time, there is additional good news on the price side as well, as the median price of residential homes increased by 7.5 percent over the same period last year – the first month-over-month median price increase in 26 months and the largest such jump in 52 months.

According to data released this week by the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® (NHAR), 529 single family homes sold in January 2010, a substantial gain from the 454 home sales in January 2009. And the median price in that same period was $215,000 this year, compared to $200,000 of a year ago.

The last time home prices showed an increase for a single month over the same period from a year prior was November 2007, and the last time that increase was better than 7.5 percent was September 2005.

“We’re aware that one month cannot be defined a trend, but we’ve expected that the good news in terms of sales would ultimately translate to prices, and we’re hopeful that this is the start of that change,” said NHAR President Monika McGillicuddy, a 25-year veteran of the real estate industry and an agent with Prudential Verani in Londonderry. “This is excellent news all the way around.”

And condominium sales, which had lagged behind the residential numbers throughout much of 2009, were up in number and price as well – with a 41 percent gain in sales and 9.5 percent median price improvement.

McGillicuddy attributed the sales and price increases in part to the continued incentive of the homebuyer tax credit, and generally as a continuing signal that the residential real estate market is experiencing the early stages of the recovery process.

“There are many factors that have gone into

this shift, from the tax credit to excellent interest rates to competitive prices,” McGillicuddy said. “Ultimately, we’re talking about an increase in confidence that I believe is at the core of sustainable momentum in the real estate market.”

The good news filtered to the local markets as well, as a majority of New Hampshire’s 10 counties saw year-end increases in both sales and prices.

“We’ll continue to monitor these numbers closely,” McGillicuddy said, “but from what I see and from what I’m hearing from other Realtors around the state, we’re very encouraged.”

Source: NH Association of REALTORS Press Release 2/16/2010

Listed below is New London’s real estate activity for 2009 as compared to 2008 (in parentheses). All types of property sales are included: single family, land (waterfront and water access broken out), condominiums and commercial (none for this year).

“New Hampshire residential home sales experienced the largest single-month increase on record last month (November) as sales jumped 70% from November of 2008.”  In 2008, November saw 673 sales; in 2009, there were 1,141.  The NHAR (New Hampshire Association of Realtors which tracks real estate data for the State) attributed the jump in part to the home buyer tax credit incentive.  The jump was also considered a signal that the NH real estate market is in the middle of the early stages of recovery which will head us back to a “normalized residential housing market”. The cumulative totals for 2009 are about 5% ahead of the same period last year.  Also important about the increase in the number of sales is that it has helped to drive down the statewide inventory to a 9.1 month supply.  For comparison, at the end of January, 2009, it was at a 22 month supply.  Prices do continue to lag, however, which should continue to make buying a home very attractive to buyers.  The median price of last November was at $215,000 and dropped 2.8% this November to $209,000. Source:  NH Union Leader 12/16/2009