Home Buying Trends in 2022
Since 1981, the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors has published an annual report providing insight into buying and selling behaviors. Below is some interesting data on buyers from the 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.
- First time buyers made up 26% of all buyers, down from last year’s 34% and is the lowest number in 41 years.
- The distance buyers moved from their last home to their new one increased from 15 miles to 50 miles as buyers looked to small towns and rural areas..
- 49% of buyers cited quality of the neighborhood as the most important factor in determining location.
- They typical home purchased was 1800 SF, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, built in 1986.
- Most buyers expected to live in their home for a median of 15 yrs.
- 86% of buyers purchased their home thru a real estate agent. 89% would use their agent again or recommend their agent to others.
- 88% of buyers reported they view a home purchase as a good investment.
This is a small sample of the characteristics of home buyers in 2022. If you’d like to know how current trends and behaviors impact your goals of buying or selling, then contact me.
Contact Donna Forest: 603-526-4116; www.DonnaForest.com; Donna@DonnaForest.com
You’ll be moving in the right direction with Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate - The Milestone Team
What the Experts Predict for 2023
The popular term for 2022 was it’s a “shifting market”. In other words, the exuberant days of low interest rates and over asking prices from the previous 2 years were disappearing. Here’s what the experts are predicting for 2023.
- If inflation is high, mortgage rates will be high. But if inflation continues to fall, rates will likely fall as well. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors, expects rates to be at 5.7% by year end. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are projecting around 6%.
- Housing inventory is expected to remain tight (putting upward pressure on home prices). Sales are down 17% in NH for 2022 from the previous year. For the U.S., Yun predicts sales to fall 6.8% in 2023 compared to 2022. Higher interest rates have tempered buyer demand as well.
- Home price appreciation could go up or down. Some experts predict up to 5.4% appreciation while others say prices could depreciate as much as 5.1%. Most likely appreciation will be relatively flat or neutral. Some areas could see small price gains and others may see slight price declines.
Moderation might be the new catch phrase for 2023. Rates are expected to stabilize, the volume of sales will be less, and home appreciation may be relatively flat, depending on where you live. Whether buying or selling, contact me to know how this market impacts you.
Contact Donna Forest: 603-526-4116; www.DonnaForest.com; Donna@DonnaForest.com
You’ll be moving in the right direction with Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate - The Milestone Team
Slowdown or Bubble?
The headlines today are attention grabbing. Recession, housing bubble, dropping prices. News is designed to get you to watch more news – not educate you. Fear sells. If you look at the data, there is no case to be made for a national bubble or housing crash. Here’s why:
Since 2008, lending standards are much stricter. The exotic programs are gone and there are now better qualified buyers. Foreclosures have been trending down since 2010 – 2.9M in 2010 to 151K in 2021. Today, only 0.4% of homeowners are facing foreclosure and about 91% of these have at least some equity built up. US households own 41 trillion dollars in owner occupied real estate. There is 12 trillion in mortgage debt, leaving 29 trillion in equity. That’s a big number!
Inventory is still historically low. In the US, it is up 27% year-over-year as of Sept. 9th. Compare this to 2019 where it was 43.2%. In NH, new listings as of Aug., are down 22% and there is only a 1.6 month supply of homes to sell. (A balanced market has a 6 month supply).
Price appreciation is slowing but not depreciating. Experts forecast an avg. gain of 11.3% for home prices in 2022 and 2.5% for 2023. YTD thru Aug., the median sales price in NH is up 14.5% compared to Aug. 2021.
Rates are rising in response to inflation. Over the past 5 recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an avg. of 1.8% from the peak to the trough.
Buyer demand has moderated compared to the frenzy of the last 2 years, however showing activity is still beating pre-pandemic levels. Interest rates will fluctuate, and pricing is all about supply & demand. Housing is traditionally one of the first sectors to slow as the economy softens but is also one of the first to rebound. Don’t let fear stop you from buying or selling today. Contact me to work with a professional to help guide you thru this process.
Contact Donna Forest: 603-526-4116; www.DonnaForest.com; Donna@DonnaForest.com
You’ll be moving in the right direction with Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate - The Milestone Team
What You Need to Know About the Housing Market
It seems like the term “housing recession” is in everything you read and see on the news. Since I was not even sure what this means, I researched what the experts are saying and found the following:
- Home sales are slowing, with a projection of 5.1M (million) by year end. It is quite a drop compared to the heyday of the last 2 years; there were 6.1M sales in 2021 and 5.65M in 2020. However, looking back at the more “normal” years with 5.25M in 2019 and 5.3M in 2018, 5.1M doesn’t seem as dramatic.
- Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors states "We're witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building," "It's not a recession in home prices," Yun added. "Inventory remains tight and prices continue to rise nationally with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price."
- In NH, sales are down 15% thru July compared to 2021. The median selling price is up 14.8% at $445K and the state has 1.7 month supply of homes to sell. Anything less than 6-7 month supply is a sellers’ market. In the US, the median price is $403,800, up 10.8% from July 2021 and there is a 3 month supply of inventory.
- Experts predict the following mortgage rates - 5.3% 4th Q this year, 5.2% 1Q 2023, 5.18% 2Q 2023, and 4.97% 3Q 2023. Historically still a “low” rate considering between April 1971 and June 2022, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 7.77% (from Freddie Mac records).
The market has changed from the last two years. Fewer bidding wars, houses staying on the market longer than a weekend, offers being accepted with contingencies. While still a sellers’ market for now, buyers should see more inventory slowly come on the market with a little fluctuation in interest rates. Contact me for more details on how the market impacts you.
Donna Forest ~ donna@donnaforest.com ~ 603-731-5151
Are Home Prices Still Going Up?
Given the war in Ukraine, rising mortgage rates, COVID, inflation at 7.9%, etc., you might be wondering if home prices will still be increasing or if we are in a housing bubble that might burst at any moment. We are definitely NOT in a housing bubble. It is simply the law of supply and demand at work where there are more buyers than houses for sale. The lack of inventory means buyers will be forced to bid up prices if they hope to land a home. In NH, new listings are down 17% thru Feb., the volume of sales is down 17.7% and the median sales price at $400,000 is up 14% compared to the first two months in 2021. Back in Dec., economists were predicting home prices to rise at a more moderate rate between 5% and 6%. Zillow is now predicting prices to be up 17.3% at year end. While it’s difficult to really say how much increase there will ultimately be, the forecast is definitely upwards as spring is shaping up to be one of the hottest markets yet. Home ownership builds wealth – a homeowner’s net worth is 40x greater than that of a renter. It also is one of the best investments against inflation. Whether a first-time buyer or looking to sell to buy a home that better suits your needs, waiting will cost you. Contact me to find out what steps you should be taking now.
Donna Forest 603.731.5151~donna@donnaforest.com
After a strange and fast-paced year in real estate, it’s sometimes helpful to look back and see what the market did in 2021. Below are some interesting statistics.
In NH, when comparing single family home sales in 2021 to 2020 - the median sales price was up 17.9% to $395,000, the number of days a house was on the market was 26 days, the number of listings was down 6.3%, the number of homes sold was down 5.5%, and houses typically sold at 102.5% of the asking price.
Comparing the combined 8 area towns (Kearsarge School District plus Sunapee) – the median sales price was up 17.5% to $417,000, the number of days a house was on the market was 9 days, the number of homes sold was down 22% (463 sales in 2020 vs. 361 sales in 2021), and houses typically sold at 100% of the asking price.
In short, sale prices reached new highs, inventory remained low and homes sold in record time and usually above asking price. The expectation for 2022 is a bit more of the same, albeit at a more moderate pace. If you are thinking of buying or selling, contact me to find out how the market impacts you.
Data taken from NH Assoc. of Realtors and NEREN MLS, 1/1/20 to 12/31/20 and 1/1/21 to 12/31/21.
Contact Donna Forest: 603-526-4116; donnaforest.com www.DonnaForest.com Donna@DonnaForest.com
You’ll be moving in the right direction with Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate - The Milestone Team
Home prices in NH as well as the US continue to climb upwards as we still are experiencing a shortage of houses for sale. Multiple offers are driving the median sales price of a home in NH to a high of $375,000 (YTD thru May) while the median sales price for the US is $350,000. The average days on market is 34 days and the selling prices are 102% of the asking price. Looking at our local market, in the 3 towns of Newbury, New London & Sunapee combined, there were a total of 53 homes sold thru May 2021, 56 sold in 2020 and 65 sold in 2019. The median selling price is $495,000 thru May compared to last year at $341,250. The average days on market is 24 days and last year was 91 days.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Assoc. of Realtors predicts by year end that we will see “less multiple offers, less hurried decisions, less frenzy” as he expects more inventory to come on the market. He anticipates bidding wars would no longer be prevalent by 2022. On the other hand, many articles I’ve read predict it will be years before the housing shortage catches up with demand. My advice – it’s hard to time the market so you should buy or sell when it’s right for you. Contact me to learn more about how the market could impact your plans in this challenging environment!
Donna Forest ~ donna@donnaforest.com ~ 603-731-5151
Despite everything that happened this past year, most economists are predicting 2021 to continue to be a hot market with high demand and low inventory. Home sales and prices are expected to continue to rise. The 20-plus housing and economic experts participating in NAR’s annual Real Estate Forecast Summit predicted housing prices to increase 8% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022. Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com expects home sales to jump 7% with home prices up 5.7%. Mortgage rates are expected to remain low with a slight uptick in the 30-year fixed rate to 3.0%.
Svenja Gudell, chief economist for Zillow, stated “there are millions of millennials aging into their prime home buying years, and millions more Gen Zers behind them that all will want and need homes of their own, keeping demand at a boil for years to come.” Also, the ability to work remotely for many now means people can live where they want versus where their workplace is located. With a thriving real estate market in 2021, buyers should take advantage of the historically low interest rates. Sellers will continue to benefit from the high buyer demand. Whether buying or selling, contact me for more information on how this hot market impacts you. Donna@DonnaForest.com; 603-526-4116 (O); 603-731-5151 (C).
Typically, as we slide into our fall season of apple picking and pumpkins on the porch, the real estate market starts to slow down. Usually there are fewer buyers out looking and not as many homes for sale. But as we all know, this year is anything but normal! Homes are still selling quickly and values continue to rise. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed loan applications were up more than 30% year over year and they expect buyer demand to continue into 2021. In the words of Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors' chief economist, “this market momentum is very solid.” He also stated "home sales continue to amaze, and there are plenty of buyers in the pipeline ready to enter the market."
“With unusually high buyer interest this late in the home buying season, buyers are moving much faster than this time last year to beat out competition and lock in low mortgage rates. This means homes are sitting on the market for much less time, despite notably higher price tags,” the report’s author, Realtor.com economist Danielle Hale, wrote. “Campisi, Natalie The Fall Real Estate Market Is Abnormally Hot As Mortgage Rates Break Records” Forbes 9/11/20
Bottom line, it’s not too late to get your house on the market! Contact me if you want to know how to successfully sell your home this fall. 603-526-4116; www.DonnaForest.com; Donna @DonnaForest.com
The real estate market continues to see low inventory and high buyer demand which means it is still a sellers’ market. In July, the state was reporting historically low inventory – half as much for sale this year compared to last year in July (which was also historically low). Buyers realize the importance of home ownership as evidenced by the Mortgage Bankers Association Aug.12 report which shows a 22% increase in mortgage home purchase applications over last year.
NH market data reveals the state had the highest July median sales price ever for that month at $340k. Year to date (thru July) the median sales price in NH is up 7% at $320k compared to $299k last year with the days on market at 56 days and sellers receiving 98.9% of the list price. In the combined towns of Newbury, New London & Sunapee, the number of home sales is a little ahead of last year (thru July) – 115 sales this year/110 sales in 2019. The avg. days on market is 74 and sellers are receiving 96% of their asking price. Currently there are only 43 homes for sale in the 3 towns; 29 of which are priced over $400k. Now is the ideal time to be selling as we expect buyer activity to remain strong thru early fall. Contact me if you’d like to know the value of your home in today’s active market! 603-526-4116; www.DonnaForest.com; Donna @DonnaForest.com
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